A New Way to Evaluate NBA Player’s Decision Making

Introduction

The Problem with the Current Business Analytics

The Solution

Diagram of EPV as a weight average of the values of the ballcarrier’s decisions and the probability of making each decision.

EPV (Expected Possession Value)

EPV = E[points | d(t)]
EPV throughout the Spurs’ final possession, with annotations of major events.

Introducing EPVmetrics

Shot Satisfaction = Σ (EPV(t) - E[points | pass in (t, t+ε], d(t)])

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